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On This Date In Carolina Weather History...
Hurricane Dennis weakens to a Tropical Storm and makes a loop off the
Outer Banks before moving into central NC on September 4, 1999. Albemarle
receives 6.25 inches of rain on September 4, 1998
Hurricane Dennis weakens to a Tropical Storm and makes a loop off the
Outer Banks before moving into central NC on September 4, 1999. Albemarle
receives 6.25 inches of rain on September 4, 1998
Carolina Weather Forecast
***FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON***
***HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EDT SATURDAY***
***Tropical Storm Hanna***
***Hurricane Ike***
***Tropical Storm Josephine***
New local forecasts are coming for all US zip codes. The new forecasts
will include: 7-day forecast, hourly forecast, detailed description for next 7
days and more. Stay tuned for updates.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008
SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
THE FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS HANNA AND HER POTENTIAL EFFECTS.
THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORT SHOWED THAT
HANNA`S CENTER HAS JOGGED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY REPORTED... AND IF THIS IS DEEMED TO BE MORE THAN
JUST A SPURIOUS WOBBLE... IT COULD ULTIMATELY MEAN AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK. AT THIS POINT THOUGH... THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TAKES HANNA`S CENTER TO NEAR
LUMBERTON AT 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING TO JUST WEST OF ROANOKE
RAPIDS BY 2 PM... AFTER LANDFALL ON THE SC COAST AS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE A FAST-MOVER... WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE THE TEMPORAL WINDOW OF ADVERSE IMPACT ON
CENTRAL NC. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST INCLEMENT CONDITIONS
WILL BE FELT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY... WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.
FIRST... REGARDING RAINFALL: HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER... NEARLY
200% OF NORMAL... HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SURGE WESTWARD INTO
THE AREA... CONCURRENT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE-DIRECTED MOISTURE FLUX AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING
ALONG-TRACK BULK SHEAR. HAVE GONE WITH POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT... HIGHEST EAST... CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A SW-TO-NE TAPERING OFF TAKES
PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE ALONG-TRACK SHEAR
TRENDING TO RIGHTWARD-DIRECTED CROSS-TRACK SHEAR... THERE
SHOULD BE AN AREA OF HIGHER RAINFALL ALONG AND JUST RIGHT OF
THE TRACK. BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING ANOTHER STRIP OF HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NW OF THE CENTER... ROUGHLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT NORTHWARD INTO VA... AND A BAND OF RAIN
ORIENTED IN THIS FASHION GIVEN THE STORM`S MOVEMENT COULD
TRAIN HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY IN THE SAME AREA. SINCE THE
PIEDMONT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FROM FAY`S REMNANTS... ADDITIONAL
DOWNPOURS COULD EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS. EVEN WITH MORE SANDY SOILS IN THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL
PLAIN... QUICK RAINFALL RATES MAY FILL UP DITCHES AND PRODUCED
PLENTY OF URBAN FLOODING. SO WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY
FOCUSED ALONG TRACK AND ALSO TO ITS WEST... HAVE DECIDED TO
PLAY IT SAFE AND POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...
FROM LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO AROUND 4.5 INCHES WILL COVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NC.
REGARDING WINDS: WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HANNA AND THE (DIMINISHING) SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH HANNA`S CIRCULATION ITSELF... 15-25 MPH
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR... WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
INCREASE S-TO-N OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN OUR AREA ARE
AROUND 43 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 54 MPH... LOCATED OVER THE
EXTREME EAST THROUGH CLINTON/ GOLDSBORO/ TARBORO... VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINDS QUICKLY TRAIL
OFF WESTWARD WITH WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE IN
THE TRIAD. WITH THIS CIRCULATION CENTER TRACK A BIT FARTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS... HAVE UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING AND EXPANDED IT
WESTWARD TO INCLUDE AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR AREAS TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 BUT EXCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION INCLUDING
BURLINGTON AND ALBEMARLE. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
FROM SW TO NE FROM AROUND LUNCHTIME SATURDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. AS ALWAYS THOUGH... ANY FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL WILL LIKELY MEAN AN AREAL EXPANSION OR
CONTRACTION OF THESE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SO STAY TUNED.
REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT: WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH IS LESS
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES... PROJECTED 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES STILL APPROACH 200-300 M2/S2 JUST NORTH AND NE
OF THE TRACK. OUR INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATLY LIMITED
ESPECIALLY W OF I-95... BUT WITH THE QUICK SPEED OF THE STORM
AND THE STRONG 850 MB WINDS... ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 66 W TO 74 E. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE TRICKY
AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRYING AND CLEARING TAKES
PLACE ON THE SW SIDE AS THE CENTER DEPARTS. AM BANKING ON AT
LEAST A LITTLE SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW TAKES OVER... THUS HAVE RAISED
HIGHS HERE TO 87-90... WHILE HOLDING ONTO HIGHS OF 80-82 IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD ON LONGEST.
LOWS 65-72 SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. -GIH
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...
FORECAST WILL BE DRY AT THIS TIME. AM NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN THE POSITION OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY TO
HAVE MORE THAN TINY RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIND FIELD IS WEAK MONDAY ANY PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS 65 TO 70.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH THEN CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 80S TUESDAY THEN SLIPPING
TO NEAR NORMAL AT 80 TO 85. OVERNIGHT LOWS 58 TO 63.
***FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON***
***HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EDT SATURDAY***
***Tropical Storm Hanna***
***Hurricane Ike***
***Tropical Storm Josephine***
New local forecasts are coming for all US zip codes. The new forecasts
will include: 7-day forecast, hourly forecast, detailed description for next 7
days and more. Stay tuned for updates.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008
SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
THE FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS HANNA AND HER POTENTIAL EFFECTS.
THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORT SHOWED THAT
HANNA`S CENTER HAS JOGGED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY REPORTED... AND IF THIS IS DEEMED TO BE MORE THAN
JUST A SPURIOUS WOBBLE... IT COULD ULTIMATELY MEAN AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK. AT THIS POINT THOUGH... THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TAKES HANNA`S CENTER TO NEAR
LUMBERTON AT 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING TO JUST WEST OF ROANOKE
RAPIDS BY 2 PM... AFTER LANDFALL ON THE SC COAST AS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE A FAST-MOVER... WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE THE TEMPORAL WINDOW OF ADVERSE IMPACT ON
CENTRAL NC. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST INCLEMENT CONDITIONS
WILL BE FELT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY... WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.
FIRST... REGARDING RAINFALL: HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER... NEARLY
200% OF NORMAL... HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SURGE WESTWARD INTO
THE AREA... CONCURRENT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE-DIRECTED MOISTURE FLUX AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING
ALONG-TRACK BULK SHEAR. HAVE GONE WITH POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT... HIGHEST EAST... CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A SW-TO-NE TAPERING OFF TAKES
PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE ALONG-TRACK SHEAR
TRENDING TO RIGHTWARD-DIRECTED CROSS-TRACK SHEAR... THERE
SHOULD BE AN AREA OF HIGHER RAINFALL ALONG AND JUST RIGHT OF
THE TRACK. BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING ANOTHER STRIP OF HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NW OF THE CENTER... ROUGHLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT NORTHWARD INTO VA... AND A BAND OF RAIN
ORIENTED IN THIS FASHION GIVEN THE STORM`S MOVEMENT COULD
TRAIN HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY IN THE SAME AREA. SINCE THE
PIEDMONT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FROM FAY`S REMNANTS... ADDITIONAL
DOWNPOURS COULD EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS. EVEN WITH MORE SANDY SOILS IN THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL
PLAIN... QUICK RAINFALL RATES MAY FILL UP DITCHES AND PRODUCED
PLENTY OF URBAN FLOODING. SO WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY
FOCUSED ALONG TRACK AND ALSO TO ITS WEST... HAVE DECIDED TO
PLAY IT SAFE AND POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...
FROM LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO AROUND 4.5 INCHES WILL COVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NC.
REGARDING WINDS: WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HANNA AND THE (DIMINISHING) SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH HANNA`S CIRCULATION ITSELF... 15-25 MPH
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR... WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
INCREASE S-TO-N OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN OUR AREA ARE
AROUND 43 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 54 MPH... LOCATED OVER THE
EXTREME EAST THROUGH CLINTON/ GOLDSBORO/ TARBORO... VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINDS QUICKLY TRAIL
OFF WESTWARD WITH WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE IN
THE TRIAD. WITH THIS CIRCULATION CENTER TRACK A BIT FARTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS... HAVE UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING AND EXPANDED IT
WESTWARD TO INCLUDE AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR AREAS TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 BUT EXCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION INCLUDING
BURLINGTON AND ALBEMARLE. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
FROM SW TO NE FROM AROUND LUNCHTIME SATURDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. AS ALWAYS THOUGH... ANY FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL WILL LIKELY MEAN AN AREAL EXPANSION OR
CONTRACTION OF THESE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SO STAY TUNED.
REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT: WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH IS LESS
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES... PROJECTED 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES STILL APPROACH 200-300 M2/S2 JUST NORTH AND NE
OF THE TRACK. OUR INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATLY LIMITED
ESPECIALLY W OF I-95... BUT WITH THE QUICK SPEED OF THE STORM
AND THE STRONG 850 MB WINDS... ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 66 W TO 74 E. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE TRICKY
AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRYING AND CLEARING TAKES
PLACE ON THE SW SIDE AS THE CENTER DEPARTS. AM BANKING ON AT
LEAST A LITTLE SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW TAKES OVER... THUS HAVE RAISED
HIGHS HERE TO 87-90... WHILE HOLDING ONTO HIGHS OF 80-82 IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD ON LONGEST.
LOWS 65-72 SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. -GIH
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...
FORECAST WILL BE DRY AT THIS TIME. AM NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN THE POSITION OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY TO
HAVE MORE THAN TINY RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIND FIELD IS WEAK MONDAY ANY PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS 65 TO 70.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH THEN CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 80S TUESDAY THEN SLIPPING
TO NEAR NORMAL AT 80 TO 85. OVERNIGHT LOWS 58 TO 63.