TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...JOSEPHINE A LITTLE WEAKER...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST OR ABOUT 695
MILES...1120 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.8 N...34.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
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NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
...JOSEPHINE A LITTLE WEAKER...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST OR ABOUT 695
MILES...1120 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.8 N...34.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
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Tropical Weather
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TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON JOSEPHINE
THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY NEAR THE SOUTH EDGE OF A BLOW-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
1000Z. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS BECOME MUCH FARTHER SEPARATED
AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. ACCORDINGLY...
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES. JOSEPHINE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN TANDEM WITH
JOSEPHINE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES
AND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
RESTRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A 12 HOUR MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/7...BUT IT HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STEERED BY A
BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 15.8N 34.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 16.2N 35.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.0N 37.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.0N 39.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.2N 41.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 45.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 48.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 51.0W 40 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON JOSEPHINE
THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY NEAR THE SOUTH EDGE OF A BLOW-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
1000Z. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS BECOME MUCH FARTHER SEPARATED
AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. ACCORDINGLY...
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES. JOSEPHINE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN TANDEM WITH
JOSEPHINE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES
AND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
RESTRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A 12 HOUR MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/7...BUT IT HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STEERED BY A
BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 15.8N 34.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 16.2N 35.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.0N 37.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.0N 39.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.2N 41.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 45.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 48.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 51.0W 40 KT
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