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Carolina Weather Forecast
SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY AND
FRIDAY. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS HOT AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC/SC. ALOFT...00Z RAOB ANALYSIS AND THE LATEST WV
IMAGERY AND RUC DATA SHOW A LARGE H5 LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS.
TODAY:
WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RATHER WARM AND DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL CAP/INVERSION THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY THIS AFT/EVE. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE VALUES DURING PEAK
HEATING WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 250 J/KG. W/REGARD TO
LIFT...THE SFC TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL NC YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF I-95 TOWARD THE HWY 17 CORRIDOR ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF CENTRAL NC.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST...
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC...PRIMARILY OVER WV/VA. EVEN IF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVED OVER CENTRAL NC DURING PEAK HEATING
TODAY...GIVEN THE MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL CAP AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...IN ADDITION TO
THE LACK OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL FOCUS...IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MORE THAN A FEW BRIEF ISOLD SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. THE LATEST SPC WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT DOES TRY TO SHOW A FEW WEAK/ISOLD SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...
UNLESS DECENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS PRESENT...GIVEN
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BELIEVING THAT. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TODAY. BASED ON THICKNESSES...HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE NW TO LOWER 90S
S/SE...OR 87-94F. ALTHOUGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE RATHER
DEEP ONCE AGAIN TODAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO MORE
THAN 15-20 KT FLOW IN THE MIXED LAYER...AND EXPECT A 10-15
MPH WESTERLY WIND WITH LITTLE GUST POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT:
WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
CENTRAL NC NEAR THE COAST AND NO PROMINENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST. *IF* A REASONABLY POTENT SHORTWAVE CAN
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RECOVERS SUFFICIENTLY...AND THE MID-LEVEL CAP ERODES...
COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS. THE
00Z NAM HINTS AT THIS...HOWEVER...CANNOT FIND MUCH IN THE
WAY OF UPPER LEVEL HELP IN THE NAM SOLUTION...AND FEEL
THAT THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE IN THE
ABSENCE OF A REASONABLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S N/NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 244 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WEATHER TO REMAIN
TRANQUIL AS MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LIFTING
NWD. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROUGH AND
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES PROGGED TO REACH
THE MID 1410S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN W-NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD OFFSET LOW LEVEL CAA SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS FRI
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. WHILE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
FIRES WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED
COVERAGE...IN FAVOR OF KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
NOW.
ASIDE FROM PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER
OH VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 SE PROJECTED.
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...SHOULD SEE A MCC OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO LOWER OH VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING...AFFECTING
SUCH PLACES AS ST LOUIS...EVANSVILLE...AND LOUISVILLE. NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FEEDING THIS SYSTEM
PROGGED TO SHIFT SE INTO THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS
SUGGEST THAT BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF ACROSS CENTRAL
NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OPAQUENESS OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY IN ROLE IN DETERMINING MAX TEMPS
FOR THE FOURTH. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING ENOUGH BREAKS IN
CLOUDS TO ALLOW SURFACE AIR TO HEAT UP WELL INTO THE 80S
AND LOWER 90S. IF CLOUDS ARE DENSE/OPAQUE...THEN MAX
TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AIR MASS ON THE FOURTH DOES BECOME MORE MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. IF ENOUGH INSOLATION OCCURS...
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
On This Date in central North Carolina Weather History...
A severe thunderstorm produces 3.0 inch diameter hail (larger than
baseballs) in Wake County on June 24, 1986.
We provide local weather information for North and South Carolina.
Current weather, 7 day forecast, US and regional graphics, traffic
cameras, radar and satellite images, pictures taken by us and you.
We're More Than Just Weather. We are a part of your community.
SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY AND
FRIDAY. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS HOT AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC/SC. ALOFT...00Z RAOB ANALYSIS AND THE LATEST WV
IMAGERY AND RUC DATA SHOW A LARGE H5 LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS.
TODAY:
WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RATHER WARM AND DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL CAP/INVERSION THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY THIS AFT/EVE. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE VALUES DURING PEAK
HEATING WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 250 J/KG. W/REGARD TO
LIFT...THE SFC TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL NC YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF I-95 TOWARD THE HWY 17 CORRIDOR ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF CENTRAL NC.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST...
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC...PRIMARILY OVER WV/VA. EVEN IF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVED OVER CENTRAL NC DURING PEAK HEATING
TODAY...GIVEN THE MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL CAP AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...IN ADDITION TO
THE LACK OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL FOCUS...IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MORE THAN A FEW BRIEF ISOLD SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. THE LATEST SPC WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT DOES TRY TO SHOW A FEW WEAK/ISOLD SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...
UNLESS DECENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS PRESENT...GIVEN
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BELIEVING THAT. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TODAY. BASED ON THICKNESSES...HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE NW TO LOWER 90S
S/SE...OR 87-94F. ALTHOUGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE RATHER
DEEP ONCE AGAIN TODAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO MORE
THAN 15-20 KT FLOW IN THE MIXED LAYER...AND EXPECT A 10-15
MPH WESTERLY WIND WITH LITTLE GUST POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT:
WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
CENTRAL NC NEAR THE COAST AND NO PROMINENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST. *IF* A REASONABLY POTENT SHORTWAVE CAN
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RECOVERS SUFFICIENTLY...AND THE MID-LEVEL CAP ERODES...
COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS. THE
00Z NAM HINTS AT THIS...HOWEVER...CANNOT FIND MUCH IN THE
WAY OF UPPER LEVEL HELP IN THE NAM SOLUTION...AND FEEL
THAT THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE IN THE
ABSENCE OF A REASONABLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S N/NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 244 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WEATHER TO REMAIN
TRANQUIL AS MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LIFTING
NWD. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROUGH AND
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES PROGGED TO REACH
THE MID 1410S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN W-NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD OFFSET LOW LEVEL CAA SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS FRI
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. WHILE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
FIRES WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED
COVERAGE...IN FAVOR OF KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
NOW.
ASIDE FROM PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER
OH VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 SE PROJECTED.
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...SHOULD SEE A MCC OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO LOWER OH VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING...AFFECTING
SUCH PLACES AS ST LOUIS...EVANSVILLE...AND LOUISVILLE. NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FEEDING THIS SYSTEM
PROGGED TO SHIFT SE INTO THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS
SUGGEST THAT BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF ACROSS CENTRAL
NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OPAQUENESS OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY IN ROLE IN DETERMINING MAX TEMPS
FOR THE FOURTH. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING ENOUGH BREAKS IN
CLOUDS TO ALLOW SURFACE AIR TO HEAT UP WELL INTO THE 80S
AND LOWER 90S. IF CLOUDS ARE DENSE/OPAQUE...THEN MAX
TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AIR MASS ON THE FOURTH DOES BECOME MORE MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. IF ENOUGH INSOLATION OCCURS...
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
On This Date in central North Carolina Weather History...
A severe thunderstorm produces 3.0 inch diameter hail (larger than
baseballs) in Wake County on June 24, 1986.
We provide local weather information for North and South Carolina.
Current weather, 7 day forecast, US and regional graphics, traffic
cameras, radar and satellite images, pictures taken by us and you.
We're More Than Just Weather. We are a part of your community.